PSG 1-3 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Apr 2025

PSG
1-3 HT 1-1
Nice
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.61
Over Pick
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
18%
5.81
2-3
37%
2.07
4-5
29%
2.54
6+
16%
5.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.87
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
13%
4.38
X/2
8%
11.65
X/X
8%
7.4
2/1 ✗
10%
18.55
2/2
12%
8.17
2/X
7%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.55 — our 10% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.3pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.4pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
2.12/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.60
+23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
471 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 81%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
15.6 Crosses 13.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

PSG vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nice
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.15
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
634 Passes 347
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FR1
15.05.2024 Nice Nice 1-2 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1
13.03.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Nice Nice FRK
15.09.2023 PSG PSG 2-3 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
08.04.2023 Nice Nice 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
01.10.2022 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1

PSG 1-3 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-3
AWAY Nice
3.16 xG 0.99
76% Ball Possession 24%
32 Total Shots 7
13 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 0
717 Passes 191
92% Pass Accuracy 77%
56 Box Touches 11
29 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSG vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice beat PSG 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was PSG at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 76% of the ball to Nice's 24%, shots finished 32-7, expected goals 3.16 to 0.99 — the balance of chances actually favoured PSG.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 1.17 for Nice.

What was the final score of PSG vs Nice?

PSG 1-3 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split PSG 52%, draw 22%, Nice 25%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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