Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒05:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.43
-25% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
01.03.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
16.09.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
11.04.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
13.08.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
19.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos squeezed past Leones Negros Udeg 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Tepatitlán de Morelos made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.17 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 33%, draw 28%, Leones Negros Udeg 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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