Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
42%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.7pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.7pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+5.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.15
-26% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
16.09.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
11.04.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
13.08.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
19.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
11.07.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos and Leones Negros Udeg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leones Negros Udeg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.50 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%, draw 23%, Leones Negros Udeg 41%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Over 2.5
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