Puszcza Niepolomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
41%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.94
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
9.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
7.12
1/2
6%
21.2
1/X
7%
15.75
X/1
5%
9.46
X/2
17%
4.36
X/X
16%
5.85
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
18%
2.19
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+7.0pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.5pp
41%
Away Win
55%
-13.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 59%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +19%
1.49/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.91
+28% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +138%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
253 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
20.8 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.40 xG 1.64
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
192 Passes 377
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2025 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-3 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
25.10.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
06.05.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
04.11.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-2 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
4-5
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.05 xG 2.61
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 5
132 Passes 394
62% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 32
6 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin nicked a narrow win over Puszcza Niepolomice 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 30% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 70%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.05 to 2.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pogon Szczecin's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 2.00 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Puszcza Niepolomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 29%, draw 30%, Pogon Szczecin 41%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ BTTS Yes
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