Bavois 4-1 Lugano II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
Over 2.5
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-4.5pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.9pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bavois EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano II EU Bookmakers 20%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
2.33/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/2.01
+2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bavois
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Lugano II
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2025 Lugano II Lugano II 1-1 HT 0-1 Bavois İSV1Y
12.04.2025 Lugano II Lugano II 0-0 Bavois İSV1Y
23.03.2024 Bavois 3-1 HT 3-0 Lugano II Lugano II İSV1Y
16.09.2023 Lugano II Lugano II 2-1 HT 2-1 Bavois İSV1Y
POST-MATCH Bavois vs Lugano II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bavois ran out comfortable winners over Lugano II 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bavois as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Bavois and 1.00 for Lugano II.

What was the final score of Bavois vs Lugano II?

Bavois 4-1 Lugano II in the Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bavois vs Lugano II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bavois win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bavois 59%, draw 19%, Lugano II 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bavois), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bavois) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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