Thun 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 25 Apr 2026

Thun
0 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Lugano
📅25/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Thun vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.29
Over Pick
62%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.51
2-3
42%
1.87
4-5
29%
2.74
6+
11%
7.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.6
1/2
2%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
15%
4.92
X/2
10%
7.52
X/X
13%
5.67
2/1 ✗
3%
21.0
2/2
16%
4.98
2/X
5%
13.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 3% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Thun v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Thun The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano The Market 32%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.03 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.41
1.21 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.45
Strong Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Average
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
31 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3

Thun vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
262 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.04.2026 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
22.11.2025 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
27.07.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-2 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV
10.02.2022 Thun Thun 3-4 HT 1-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
15.07.2020 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
09.02.2020 Thun Thun 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV

Thun 0-1 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
0 - 1
AWAY Lugano
0.66 xG 2.16
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
239 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 37
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Thun vs Lugano
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lugano came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Thun 1-0 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Thun at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (61%) never looked like landing.

On the day, Thun had 45% of the ball to Lugano's 55%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.66 to 2.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lugano's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Thun and 1.67 for Lugano.

Thun vs Lugano Result & Final Score

Thun 0 - 1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Thun vs Lugano Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Thun 48%, draw 24%, Lugano 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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25 Apr 2026
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