Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities
Lyon v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals
Lyon vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Lyon 3-2 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics
Lyon found just enough to beat Auxerre 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
Under the surface, Lyon had 55% of the ball to Auxerre's 45%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.12 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lyon's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon and 1.17 for Auxerre.
Lyon vs Auxerre Result & Final Score
Lyon 3 - 2 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lyon 59%, draw 23%, Auxerre 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.