Auxerre 1-3 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 13 Apr 2025

Auxerre
1-3 HT 0-0
Lyon
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.29
Over 2.5
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.55
No
39%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
13%
7.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
15%
20.75
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
11%
8.72
X/2
21%
4.75
X/X
6%
5.9
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
13%
2.37
2/X
7%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.75 — our 15% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.7pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 56%
+15% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.86/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.29
+39% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
268 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 83%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.4
18.8 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Auxerre vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lyon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 1.81
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
251 Passes 491
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-2 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
17.02.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
31.08.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
07.04.2012 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
27.11.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 0-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
11.05.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 4-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Auxerre 1-3 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-3
AWAY Lyon
0.74 xG 3.09
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
307 Passes 487
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon saw off Auxerre 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Auxerre had 41% of the ball to Lyon's 59%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.74 to 3.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Auxerre and 1.67 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Lyon?

Auxerre 1-3 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 30%, draw 22%, Lyon 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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