Saint-Etienne 3-3 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 13 Apr 2025

Saint-Etienne
3-3 HT 2-3
Brest
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Saint-Etienne vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
48%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.18
Over 2.5
62%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.29
2-3 Goals
34%
1.88
4-5 Goals
31%
2.9
6+ Goals
14%
8.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.19
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.0
1/X
4%
13.4
X/1
12%
7.68
X/2
20%
5.02
X/X
8%
5.49
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
18%
2.68
2/X
8%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.0 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.6pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.1pp
48%
Away Win
47%
+1.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
42%
-3.6pp
62%
Over 2.5
58%
+3.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 50%
-2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.45/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.31
+35% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 82%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
17.2 Crosses 21.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Saint-Etienne vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Brest
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.98 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
367 Passes 318
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Brest Brest 4-0 HT 2-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
16.04.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-1 HT 2-1 Brest Brest FR1
01.12.2021 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
24.04.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-2 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
21.11.2020 Brest Brest 4-1 HT 4-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
16.02.2020 Brest Brest 3-2 HT 3-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1

Saint-Etienne 3-3 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
3-3
AWAY Brest
0.72 xG 1.53
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 9
410 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne and Brest couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Brest at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 60% of the ball to Brest's 40%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.72 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Saint-Etienne and 2.50 for Brest.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Brest?

Saint-Etienne 3-3 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 32%, draw 20%, Brest 48%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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