Lyon 2-2 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 27 Oct 2024

Lyon
2-2 HT 1-0
Auxerre
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.12
2-3 Goals
35%
2.08
4-5 Goals
30%
2.56
6+ Goals
15%
5.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.75
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.0
X/1
13%
3.91
X/2
9%
12.9
X/X
12%
7.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
18.9
2/2
9%
8.62
2/X
4%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.9pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
2.15/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.83
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
19.0 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1

Lyon vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Auxerre
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 1.10
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
507 Passes 258
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.02.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
31.08.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
07.04.2012 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
27.11.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 0-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
11.05.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 4-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
22.12.2010 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1

Lyon 2-2 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-2
AWAY Auxerre
2.03 xG 1.54
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
460 Passes 235
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon and Auxerre shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lyon at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Lyon had 63% of the ball to Auxerre's 37%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 2.03 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lyon and 1.50 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Auxerre?

Lyon 2-2 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lyon 57%, draw 21%, Auxerre 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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