Marsilya 0-3 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 27 Oct 2024

Marsilya
0-3 HT 0-3
PSG
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Marsilya vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
46%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.9
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
9%
8.58
X/2
13%
4.54
X/X
12%
5.79
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.33
2/X
9%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.9 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-4.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.7pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 55%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.36/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.46
-47% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
275 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 84%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
25.3 Crosses 12.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Marsilya vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-0D-5L
AWAY PSG
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.27 xG 1.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
393 Passes 482
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 0-2 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
24.09.2023 PSG PSG 4-0 HT 2-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
26.02.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-3 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1
08.02.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FRK
16.10.2022 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
17.04.2022 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 2-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 0-3 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
0-3
AWAY PSG
0.24 xG 3.12
25% Ball Possession 75%
5 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 2
241 Passes 862
79% Pass Accuracy 94%
9 Box Touches 38
5 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG cruised past Marsilya 3-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Marsilya had 25% of the ball to PSG's 75%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.24 to 3.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Marsilya and 2.17 for PSG.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs PSG?

Marsilya 0-3 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 28%, draw 26%, PSG 46%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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