Lugazi Municipal 1-2 Kitara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
Over 2.5
32%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Kitara EU Bookmakers 56%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.77/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/0.30
-3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +130%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
249 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugazi Municipal
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Kitara
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2025 Kitara Kitara 4-0 HT 2-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
15.04.2025 Kitara Kitara 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
14.09.2024 Lugazi Municipal 0-3 HT 0-2 Kitara Kitara UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugazi Municipal
1-2
AWAY Kitara
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs Kitara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kitara nicked a narrow win over Lugazi Municipal 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kitara as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 50% of the ball to Kitara's 50%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kitara led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Lugazi Municipal and 2.33 for Kitara.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs Kitara?

Lugazi Municipal 1-2 Kitara in the Uganda - Premier League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs Kitara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 26%, draw 30%, Kitara 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kitara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kitara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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