Guangxi Baoyun 3-4 Guangzhou Evergrande — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
33%
3.64
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.95
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
6%
17.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 30% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.3pp
33%
Draw
24%
+8.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangxi Baoyun EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 23%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.31/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.28
+36% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
405 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
9.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
9.0 Crosses 11.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.52 xG 1.30
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
180 Passes 230
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 1-0 HT 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
14.05.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 1-2 HT 0-0 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
3-4
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande
1.90 xG 0.79
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 1
216 Passes 283
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Guangxi Baoyun vs Guangzhou Evergrande
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangzhou Evergrande squeezed past Guangxi Baoyun 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Guangxi Baoyun at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guangxi Baoyun had 46% of the ball to Guangzhou Evergrande's 54%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.90 to 0.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guangxi Baoyun.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Guangxi Baoyun had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Guangxi Baoyun and 0.50 for Guangzhou Evergrande.

What was the final score of Guangxi Baoyun vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Guangxi Baoyun 3-4 Guangzhou Evergrande in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangxi Baoyun vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangxi Baoyun win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Guangxi Baoyun 45%, draw 33%, Guangzhou Evergrande 22%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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