Newells Old Boys 1-0 Defensa y Justicia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.72
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 37% vs market 33.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.95
X/1 EV+ ✓
26%
3.94
X/2
8%
8.57
X/X
12%
4.05
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
9%
7.34
2/X
6%
15.85
Value flag · X/1 at 3.94 — our 26% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.2pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newells Old Boys EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -8%
1.22/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.53
-26% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
22.6 Crosses 15.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newells Old Boys
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
329 Passes 265
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2024 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 0-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
28.11.2023 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 3-0 HT 1-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
11.02.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 1-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
26.07.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-2 HT 0-1 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
11.02.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
25.08.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 2-0 HT 0-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newells Old Boys
1-0
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
0.75 xG 0.36
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
252 Passes 372
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newells Old Boys vs Defensa y Justicia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newells Old Boys nicked a narrow win over Defensa y Justicia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newells Old Boys as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newells Old Boys had 43% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 57%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.75 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensa y Justicia led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newells Old Boys and 1.00 for Defensa y Justicia.

What was the final score of Newells Old Boys vs Defensa y Justicia?

Newells Old Boys 1-0 Defensa y Justicia in the Argentina - Premier League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newells Old Boys vs Defensa y Justicia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newells Old Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Newells Old Boys 50%, draw 27%, Defensa y Justicia 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newells Old Boys), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newells Old Boys) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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