Albirex Niigata 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.48
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
12%
4.41
X/2
16%
6.46
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
10%
33.0
2/2
16%
5.44
2/X
7%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+9.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.02/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.06
-12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +42%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 73%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.3 Crosses 20.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 0.88
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
518 Passes 256
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
24.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
15.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 0-2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
08.03.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
14.10.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
29.08.2020 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-2
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.81 xG 0.32
75% Ball Possession 25%
9 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
693 Passes 190
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka nicked a narrow win over Albirex Niigata 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Avispa Fukuoka found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 75% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 25%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.81 to 0.32 — on chances, Albirex Niigata could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.17 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Albirex Niigata 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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