Jubilo Iwata 3-2 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
17.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.42
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
12%
6.14
X/2
17%
5.06
X/X
13%
4.19
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
17%
3.36
2/X
5%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.06/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.14
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.7 Crosses 19.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
319 Passes 288
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
22.06.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JPK
18.05.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
10.04.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
02.03.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JLK
11.08.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-3 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
3-2
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.19 xG 1.14
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
326 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata edged past Shonan Bellmare 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shonan Bellmare at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 51% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 49%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.19 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 0.83 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Jubilo Iwata 3-2 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 32%, draw 27%, Shonan Bellmare 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
25 May 2024
08:00 Consadole Sapporo vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
10:00 Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
10:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →