Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -36%
1.53/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.09
+50% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.8 Crosses 19.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Samsunspor
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.28 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
328 Passes 249
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
06.01.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.01.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
03.12.2014 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
22.12.2004 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-3 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
AWAY Samsunspor
2.09 xG 1.21
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
265 Passes 429
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük saw off Samsunspor 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 39% of the ball to Samsunspor's 61%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 2.09 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Samsunspor led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.60 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 44%, draw 28%, Samsunspor 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TSL More Turkey - Super League
25 May 2024
19:00 Sivasspor vs Kayserispor Analysis →