Hartford Athletic 2-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 May 2024

Hartford Athletic
2-1 HT 1-1
Monterey Bay
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Hartford Athletic vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.29
Over 2.5
46%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.81
2-3 Goals
47%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 22% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.9pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartford Athletic v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.69/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.30
+27% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
16.8 Crosses 14.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Hartford Athletic vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Monterey Bay
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
1.86 xG 2.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
321 Passes 237
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.03.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 5-3 HT 4-2 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP

Hartford Athletic 2-1 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
2-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.32 xG 1.02
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 7
243 Passes 290
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic nicked a narrow win over Monterey Bay 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hartford Athletic as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 45% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 55%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.32 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs Monterey Bay?

Hartford Athletic 2-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartford Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 41%, draw 26%, Monterey Bay 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartford Athletic) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartford Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5
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