Panathinaikos 1-0 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Cup, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.30/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.42
+28% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
390 Passes 299
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
07.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-2 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
28.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.11.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-0 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
14.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
05.04.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
1-0
AWAY Aris Saloniki
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos edged past Aris Saloniki 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Panathinaikos as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 60% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 40%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.67 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Panathinaikos 1-0 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Cup on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 41%, draw 27%, Aris Saloniki 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panathinaikos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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