Panathinaikos 0-1 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 28 Apr 2024

Panathinaikos
0-1 HT 0-1
Aris Saloniki
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2023/2024

Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
29%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.26 — our 25% vs market 18.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.6
X/1
23%
3.53
X/2
6%
16.5
X/X
12%
6.75
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
5%
13.1
2/X
7%
20.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-11.2pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.1pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Panathinaikos v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.79/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.66
-3% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
367 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
21.5 Crosses 8.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
371 Passes 310
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-2 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
28.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.11.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-0 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
14.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
05.04.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
12.02.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN

Panathinaikos 0-1 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
0-1
AWAY Aris Saloniki
61% Ball Possession 39%
26 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
441 Passes 260
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki squeezed past Panathinaikos 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Panathinaikos carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 61% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 39%, shots finished 26-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.67 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Panathinaikos 0-1 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 57%, draw 25%, Aris Saloniki 17%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Panathinaikos), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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