PAOK 3-2 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.39
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.98
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.94
X/2
10%
5.45
X/X
10%
4.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
30.0
2/2
26%
3.52
2/X
7%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.6pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.02/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.79
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.0 Crosses 19.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
0W-2D-4L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.74 xG 0.99
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
225 Passes 302
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
11.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.10.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
24.05.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
26.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 4-0 HT 2-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
02.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
3-2
AWAY AEK Atina
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
222 Passes 256
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH PAOK vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK squeezed past AEK Atina 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, PAOK had 48% of the ball to AEK Atina's 52%, shots finished 8-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for PAOK and 2.00 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of PAOK vs AEK Atina?

PAOK 3-2 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PAOK 33%, draw 25%, AEK Atina 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AEK Atina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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