Nottingham Forest 0-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 30% vs market 19.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.1
1/2
7%
22.9
1/X
11%
13.45
X/1
16%
7.45
X/2
14%
5.02
X/X
10%
5.34
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
14%
2.76
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+8.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
35%
Away Win
45%
-10.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.31/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.34
+51% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
17.6 Crosses 16.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Chelsea
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 1.82
28% Ball Possession 72%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
186 Passes 614
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
11.05.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
02.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
13.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
01.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
05.01.2020 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
0-1
AWAY Chelsea
1.20 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
352 Passes 327
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea squeezed past Nottingham Forest 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Chelsea made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 52% of the ball to Chelsea's 48%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.20 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.50 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 38%, draw 27%, Chelsea 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
25 May 2025
18:00 Manchester United vs Aston Villa Analysis →
18:00 Wolverhampton vs Brentford Analysis →
18:00 Ipswich Town vs West Ham United Analysis →
18:00 Newcastle United vs Everton Analysis →
18:00 Southampton vs Arsenal Analysis →
18:00 Tottenham vs Brighton & Hove Albion Analysis →