Avai 2-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
21.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 36% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
55%
-9.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +23%
1.17/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.38
-28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.4 Crosses 14.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Chapecoense
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.71 xG 0.98
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 251
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.09.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 1-0 Avai Avai BR2
09.06.2024 Avai Avai 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
27.08.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
13.05.2023 Avai Avai 1-4 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
14.01.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BRCAT1
27.01.2022 Avai Avai 0-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
2-1
AWAY Chapecoense
2.67 xG 0.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
20 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
284 Passes 378
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avai vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai edged past Chapecoense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avai as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avai had 45% of the ball to Chapecoense's 55%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 2.67 to 0.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Avai's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Avai and 1.33 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Avai vs Chapecoense?

Avai 2-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Avai 45%, draw 27%, Chapecoense 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avai) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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