Novorizontino 3-1 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.7pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.1pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.39/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.12
-8% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
25.6 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Paysandu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.86
42% Ball Possession 58%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
206 Passes 334
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
30.07.2024 Paysandu Paysandu 1-3 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
3-1
AWAY Paysandu
1.57 xG 1.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
501 Passes 284
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino beat Paysandu 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 62% of the ball to Paysandu's 38%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 1.57 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Novorizontino and 1.00 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Paysandu?

Novorizontino 3-1 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 47%, draw 30%, Paysandu 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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