Guadeloupe 2-3 Guatemala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Gold Cup, 25 Jun 2025

Guadeloupe
2-3 HT 0-2
Guatemala
📅25/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
CONCACAF Gold Cup – 2025

Guadeloupe vs Guatemala Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
41%
3.64
Away
31%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.95
Over 2.5
42%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
3.49
6+ Goals
6%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.96
1/2
4%
22.9
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
16.05
X/1
9%
8.84
X/2
13%
4.27
X/X
20%
5.38
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
14%
2.31
2/X
9%
14.75
Value flag · 1/X at 16.05 — our 12% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Draw ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.9pp
41%
Draw
24%
+16.9pp
31%
Away Win
53%
-21.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.9pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadeloupe v Guatemala — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadeloupe EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Guatemala EU Bookmakers 57%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
2.56/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/2.56
+150% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +115% / -81%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
9.0 Crosses 16.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Guadeloupe vs Guatemala Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadeloupe
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Guatemala
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.56 xG 1.38
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
262 Passes 271
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 14
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.07.2023 Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 2-3 HT 1-1 Guatemala Guatemala GK
07.07.2021 Guatemala Guatemala 1-1 HT 1-1 Guadeloupe Guadeloupe GKELEME

Guadeloupe 2-3 Guatemala — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadeloupe
2-3
AWAY Guatemala
1.23 xG 2.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
309 Passes 264
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadeloupe vs Guatemala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guatemala nicked a narrow win over Guadeloupe 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was the draw at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Guadeloupe had 54% of the ball to Guatemala's 46%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.23 to 2.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guatemala's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Guatemala led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Guadeloupe and 2.00 for Guatemala.

What was the final score of Guadeloupe vs Guatemala?

Guadeloupe 2-3 Guatemala in the CONCACAF Gold Cup on 25/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadeloupe vs Guatemala?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Guadeloupe 28%, draw 41%, Guatemala 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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