Honduras 2-1 Curaçao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Gold Cup, 25 Jun 2025

📅25/06/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.96
No
42%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.53
2-3 Goals
47%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
4.92
6+ Goals
5%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.23
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.95
X/1
22%
4.8
X/2
9%
6.66
X/X
14%
3.94
2/1
4%
31.0
2/2
15%
5.33
2/X
7%
14.6
Value flag · 1/X at 13.95 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
47%
+10.7pp
42%
BTTS No
53%
-10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Honduras EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Curaçao EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
2.88/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
+124% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -53%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
353 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 82%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
11.0 Crosses 20.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Honduras
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Curaçao
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
341 Passes 271
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.06.2022 Honduras Honduras 1-2 HT 0-1 Curaçao Curaçao CON
04.06.2022 Curaçao Curaçao 0-1 HT 0-1 Honduras Honduras CON
22.06.2019 Honduras Honduras 0-1 HT 0-1 Curaçao Curaçao GK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Honduras
2-1
AWAY Curaçao
0.70 xG 0.49
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 379
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Honduras vs Curaçao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Honduras squeezed past Curaçao 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Honduras as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Honduras had 46% of the ball to Curaçao's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.70 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Curaçao led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Honduras and 1.00 for Curaçao.

What was the final score of Honduras vs Curaçao?

Honduras 2-1 Curaçao in the CONCACAF Gold Cup on 25/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Honduras vs Curaçao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Honduras win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Honduras 41%, draw 32%, Curaçao 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Honduras), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Honduras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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