Boca Juniors 1-0 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.48
Over 2.5
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
14%
5.8
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
22%
4.09
X/2
5%
7.37
X/X
14%
3.57
2/1
4%
33.0
2/2
12%
6.52
2/X
8%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-2.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.8pp
35%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.2pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -66%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.54 xG 0.85
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
202 Passes 336
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 22
5 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.07.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-0 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors CON CSA
15.07.2016 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle LKU
08.07.2016 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
1-0
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.34 xG 0.15
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
202 Passes 409
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors nicked a narrow win over Independiente Del Valle 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 37% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 63%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 0.34 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.67 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Independiente Del Valle?

Boca Juniors 1-0 Independiente Del Valle in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 50%, draw 29%, Independiente Del Valle 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CSA More Copa Sudamericana
25 Jul 2024
01:00 Uni. Catolica vs Libertad Analysis →
03:30 Bragantino vs Barcelona SC Analysis →