Bragantino 3-2 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.66
6+ Goals
10%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.6
X/1
14%
3.51
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
9%
4.48
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
9%
9.43
2/X
9%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.74/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
-3% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 71%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.5 Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.57 xG 0.89
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 6
267 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.07.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
3-2
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.45 xG 0.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 9
213 Passes 257
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino edged past Barcelona SC 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bragantino had 45% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 55%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.45 to 0.35.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Barcelona SC?

Bragantino 3-2 Barcelona SC in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 52%, draw 26%, Barcelona SC 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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