Uni. Catolica 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Jul 2024

Uni. Catolica
1-1 HT 1-0
Libertad
📅25/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Sudamericana – 2024

Uni. Catolica vs Libertad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.8
X/1
19%
3.58
X/2
7%
13.3
X/X
13%
5.89
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
9%
10.8
2/X
9%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.5pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.3pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uni. Catolica v Libertad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 18%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.89/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.76
-52% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.1 Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards –

Uni. Catolica vs Libertad Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Libertad
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 0.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
412 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica CSA
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
07.11.2023 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.05.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1

Uni. Catolica 1-1 Libertad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
1-1
AWAY Libertad
1.02 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
367 Passes 182
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Uni. Catolica at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 62% of the ball to Libertad's 38%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.02 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Uni. Catolica and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Libertad?

Uni. Catolica 1-1 Libertad in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 50%, draw 28%, Libertad 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uni. Catolica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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