İspanya (K) 2-1 Japonya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 25 Jul 2024

İspanya (K)
2-1 HT 1-1
Japonya (K)
📅25/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Olympics – 2024

İspanya (K) vs Japonya (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.33
Over 2.5
48%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.83
2-3 Goals
43%
1.93
4-5 Goals
21%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.61
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.83 — our 26% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.87
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1 EV+ ✓
27%
3.94
X/2
8%
11.9
X/X
9%
6.39
2/1
5%
20.6
2/2
8%
8.49
2/X
6%
16.1
Value flag · X/1 at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.9pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
39%
+12.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
61%
-12.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.0pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İspanya (K) v Japonya (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya (K) EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Japonya (K) EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

İspanya (K) vs Japonya (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya (K)
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Japonya (K)
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 0.91
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
590 Passes 294
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
31.07.2023 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) 4-0 HT 3-0 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) KDK
15.11.2022 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) HAZ
02.06.2019 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) 1-1 HT 0-1 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) HAZ

İspanya (K) 2-1 Japonya (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya (K)
2-1
AWAY Japonya (K)
1.29 xG 0.33
75% Ball Possession 25%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
829 Passes 208
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
38 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH İspanya (K) vs Japonya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya (K) edged past Japonya (K) 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İspanya (K) as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, İspanya (K) had 75% of the ball to Japonya (K)'s 25%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.29 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for İspanya (K) and 1.67 for Japonya (K).

What was the final score of İspanya (K) vs Japonya (K)?

İspanya (K) 2-1 Japonya (K) in the Olympics on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya (K) vs Japonya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split İspanya (K) 58%, draw 21%, Japonya (K) 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İspanya (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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