Fakel 1-2 Makhachkala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 Jul 2026

📅25/07/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.45
Over 2.5
39%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.03
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.87
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.6
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.5
X/1
14%
4.81
X/2
5%
5.98
X/X
14%
3.4
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
17%
4.99
2/X
9%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+4.6pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 33%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.03/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.01
-55% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 73%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.7 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Makhachkala
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.71 xG 0.82
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
194 Passes 200
62% Pass Accuracy 60%
30 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
01.12.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
06.10.2024 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-2
AWAY Makhachkala
1.13 xG 0.85
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
426 Passes 300
17 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Makhachkala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Makhachkala nicked a narrow win over Fakel 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fakel at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.13 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fakel and 0.50 for Makhachkala.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Makhachkala?

Fakel 1-2 Makhachkala in the Russia - Premier League on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Makhachkala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fakel 44%, draw 28%, Makhachkala 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fakel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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