Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

Bournemouth
1-1 HT 1-0
Newcastle United
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Bournemouth vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.63
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.63 — our 27% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.45
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.8
X/2
12%
5.96
X/X
14%
5.29
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
13%
3.58
2/X
6%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.2pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bournemouth v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.39/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.35
+11% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
18.5 Crosses 14.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bournemouth vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.59 xG 1.58
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
249 Passes 422
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
11.11.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
11.02.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
20.12.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNLK
17.09.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
01.07.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-4 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
1-1
AWAY Newcastle United
2.26 xG 1.69
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 9
245 Passes 393
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth and Newcastle United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 39% of the ball to Newcastle United's 61%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.26 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?

Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 42%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✗ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
25 Aug 2024
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