LDU Quito 3-0 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-11.1pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.7pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
2.01/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.66
+2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +4%
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 180 · 66%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
21.4 Crosses 11.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 1.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
297 Passes 226
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-3 HT 0-3 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
12.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
03.06.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-2 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
18.11.2011 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
04.11.2011 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad CON CSA
26.08.2009 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
3-0
AWAY Libertad
1.37 xG 0.52
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
381 Passes 204
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito swept aside Libertad 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had LDU Quito as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, LDU Quito had 61% of the ball to Libertad's 39%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.37 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for LDU Quito and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs Libertad?

LDU Quito 3-0 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 60%, draw 21%, Libertad 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LDU Quito), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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