Istra 1961 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
41%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.91
Over 2.5
41%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 34% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+5.7pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.4pp
41%
Away Win
55%
-14.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.5pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 59%
+5% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
0.97/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.87
+31% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
11.6 Crosses 17.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.55 xG 1.11
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
288 Passes 327
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.03.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
26.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
07.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 2-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.01.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.44 xG 1.37
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 5
178 Passes 388
60% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 and Hajduk Split shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 37% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 63%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.44 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.00 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

Istra 1961 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 27%, draw 32%, Hajduk Split 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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