Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.31/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.99
+36% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +66%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
19.6 Crosses 13.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.52 xG 0.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
344 Passes 248
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 1
28.03.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 HT 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
0.63 xG 1.16
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
249 Passes 226
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
10 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Comerciantes Unidos nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Garcilaso at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Comerciantes Unidos had 51% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 49%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.63 to 1.16 — on chances, Deportivo Garcilaso could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Comerciantes Unidos 32%, draw 24%, Deportivo Garcilaso 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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