Corinthians 3-0 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.3
6+ Goals
11%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.69
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
21%
4.18
X/2
10%
7.46
X/X
15%
4.25
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
9%
6.05
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 29%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.80/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/1.80
-40% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
21.0 Crosses 4.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
384 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.09.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians CSA
25.08.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
05.05.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
04.10.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians CON CSA
27.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza CON CSA
15.09.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 1-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-0
AWAY Fortaleza
2.46 xG 1.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
286 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 6
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians cruised past Fortaleza 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 48% of the ball to Fortaleza's 52%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.46 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Corinthians and 1.00 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Fortaleza?

Corinthians 3-0 Fortaleza in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 46%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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