Vasco da Gama vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vasco da Gama v Bahia — Team-Based Signals
Vasco da Gama vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
0-1
HT 0-1
Bahia
BR1
2-1
HT 2-1
Vasco da Gama
BR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Bahia
BR2
Vasco da Gama 3-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics
Vasco da Gama got the better of Bahia 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Vasco da Gama had 67% of the ball to Bahia's 33%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.16 to 0.67.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Bahia.
What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?
Vasco da Gama 3-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 46%, draw 25%, Bahia 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.