Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.17/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.14
+2% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2024 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
31.05.2024 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-2 HT 0-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
09.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
26.08.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-2 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
24.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LITA
23.04.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-0 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
1-2
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Dainava Alytus squeezed past Hegelmann Litauen 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hegelmann Litauen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 69% of the ball to FK Dainava Alytus's 31%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 0.50 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 FK Dainava Alytus in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 42%, draw 30%, FK Dainava Alytus 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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