Al Ahli 1-3 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
48%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.35
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
47%
Away Win
46%
+1.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.1pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 50%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.88/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.93
+74% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
321 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 81%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
10.8 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.84 xG 1.98
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
320 Passes 330
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.01.2025 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
18.08.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
24.02.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
01.09.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.03.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
31.08.2022 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-3 HT 2-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
POST-MATCH Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa got the better of Al Ahli 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Al Ahli and 1.83 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Al Ahli 1-3 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli 28%, draw 24%, Al Gharafa 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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