Marupe 5-1 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
12%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
Over 2.5
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
23%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
3%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
66%
-2.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.8pp
12%
Away Win
15%
-2.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.6pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marupe EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 18%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.10/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/5.04
-56% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -57%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
391 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marupe
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
29.06.2025 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 HT 1-0 Marupe Marupe LET1
25.05.2024 Marupe Marupe 2-1 HT 0-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Marupe vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marupe cruised past Progress / AFA Olaine 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Marupe had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Marupe and 1.00 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Marupe vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Marupe 5-1 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marupe vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Marupe 64%, draw 24%, Progress / AFA Olaine 12%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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