Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
MEK2
0-3
HT 0-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
MEK2
1-1
HT 1-0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
MEK2
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Actual Match Statistics
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tepatitlán de Morelos shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Alebrijes de Oaxaca had 41% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 59%, shots finished 9-19.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 2.17 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.
What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28%, draw 21%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), BTTS No went the other way.