Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
51%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.2pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.9pp
52%
Away Win
43%
+9.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.3pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.46/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.17
+21% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
12.04.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
28.10.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-2 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
27.03.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
26.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.02.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
02.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1-1
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tepatitlán de Morelos shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Alebrijes de Oaxaca had 41% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 59%, shots finished 9-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 2.17 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28%, draw 21%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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