Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
Over 2.5
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.7pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
2.61/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.15
+34% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
313 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
28.10.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-2 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
27.03.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
26.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.02.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
02.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
02.02.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos cruised past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tepatitlán de Morelos as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.83 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 53%, draw 25%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
12 Apr 2025
04:00 CD Tapatio vs Correcaminos UAT Analysis →
06:00 CA La Paz vs Dorados De Sinaloa Analysis →
06:00 Venados vs Tlaxcala Analysis →