FC Juarez 4-4 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
60%
+1.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.7pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -17%
1.52/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.84
-53% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
25.4 Crosses 14.9
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.77
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
28.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
24.03.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 4-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.08.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
4-4
AWAY Puebla
1.99 xG 1.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 2
341 Passes 354
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez and Puebla couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. FC Juarez carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 49% of the ball to Puebla's 51%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.99 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Juarez and 1.67 for Puebla.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Puebla?

FC Juarez 4-4 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 61%, draw 22%, Puebla 17%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Juarez), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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