Puebla 2-3 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
11.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -8%
1.52/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.61
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
21.6 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 0.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
328 Passes 300
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 4-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.08.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
02.03.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
30.10.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-3
AWAY FC Juarez
3.33 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 8
255 Passes 249
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez edged past Puebla 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Puebla at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Puebla had 50% of the ball to FC Juarez's 50%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 3.33 to 1.20 — on chances, Puebla could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Puebla and 1.17 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Puebla vs FC Juarez?

Puebla 2-3 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puebla 43%, draw 26%, FC Juarez 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Puebla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puebla) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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