Tigres UANL 2-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.02
2-3 Goals
41%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.5pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.64/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.70
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
447 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.5 Crosses 12.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
325 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.01.2024 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
16.07.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
04.05.2023 Leon Leon 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL CON
01.05.2023 Leon Leon 3-0 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.04.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon CON
11.09.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
2-2
AWAY Leon
2.29 xG 0.70
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
396 Passes 199
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
40 Box Touches 11
38 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Leon couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 64% of the ball to Leon's 36%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.29 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.50 for Leon.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Leon?

Tigres UANL 2-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 52%, draw 25%, Leon 24%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tigres UANL) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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