Tijuana 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2024

Tijuana
1-0 HT 1-0
Mazatlan
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Tijuana vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.53
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.71/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.24
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.4 Crosses 22.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2

Tijuana vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 0.73
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
330 Passes 312
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.08.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
15.04.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.07.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
12.02.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
25.09.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Tijuana 1-0 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
1.05 xG 0.57
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
564 Passes 244
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 18
7 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana nicked a narrow win over Mazatlan 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Tijuana made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Tijuana had 65% of the ball to Mazatlan's 35%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.05 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tijuana and 1.00 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Mazatlan?

Tijuana 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 38%, draw 27%, Mazatlan 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ BTTS Yes
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