Cerro 2-0 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
6.35
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
68%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.4
No
57%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
37%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
13%
-0.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.2pp
68%
Away Win
66%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
38%
+5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
62%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 71%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.41/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/0.84
+92% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
28.04.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
23.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 0-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
19.08.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.02.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
2-0
AWAY CA Penarol
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Cerro vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro beat CA Penarol 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CA Penarol at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Cerro had 35% of the ball to CA Penarol's 65%, shots finished 8-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cerro and 2.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Cerro vs CA Penarol?

Cerro 2-0 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Cerro 12%, draw 20%, CA Penarol 68%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (CA Penarol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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