CA Penarol 2-0 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.28
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.29
No
52%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.2pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.1pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.8pp
52%
BTTS No
60%
-8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.70/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.03
-16% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
445 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cerro
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
23.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 0-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
19.08.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.02.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
16.01.2021 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-0
AWAY Cerro
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol got the better of Cerro 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Penarol had 60% of the ball to Cerro's 40%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Cerro.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Cerro?

CA Penarol 2-0 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 61%, draw 21%, Cerro 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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