Swansea City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Swansea City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Swansea City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Derby County
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Swansea City
İNCL
2-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNCL
2-0
HT 2-0
Swansea City
İNCL
Swansea City 1-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County squeezed past Swansea City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Swansea City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Swansea City had 73% of the ball to Derby County's 27%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.65 to 0.95.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Swansea City and 0.83 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Swansea City vs Derby County?
Swansea City 1-2 Derby County in the England - Championship on 25/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 41%, draw 27%, Derby County 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.