Swansea City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Swansea City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Swansea City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Derby County
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Swansea City
İNCL
2-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNCL
2-0
HT 2-0
Swansea City
İNCL
2-3
HT 0-1
Derby County
İNCL
Swansea City 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Swansea City edged past Derby County 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 35% — and on the day Swansea City made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Swansea City had 63% of the ball to Derby County's 37%, shots finished 3-12, expected goals 0.39 to 0.65.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Swansea City and 1.33 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Swansea City vs Derby County?
Swansea City 1-0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 35%, draw 31%, Derby County 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.